Country: Sudan Source: Famine Early Warning System Network Please refer to the attached file. Key Messages Emergency (IPC Phase 4) will remain widespread through the peak of the lean season (August-September) across much of Greater Darfur, Greater Kordofan, and Blue Nile driven by conflict, deteriorating economic conditions, rising food and fuel prices, and severe erosion of purchasing capacity. Some populations will face Catastrophe (IPC Phase 5) outcomes in Um Baru, Kernoi, and At-Tiné of North Darfur; Dilling, Kadugli of South Kordofan and surrounding rural areas; El-Obeid and surrounding areas of North Kordofan; and among some internally displaced populations (IDPs) in Greater Darfur and Greater Kordofan. Humanitarian food assistance in consistently accessible parts of North Darfur (Tawila camp, Al Lait, At Taweisha), South Darfur (As Sunta, Buram), Central Darfur (Jebal Marrahs), and South Kordofan (Um Durein, Delami) is preventing worse outcomes; however, less than 20 percent of FEWS NET’s estimated population in need is receiving food assistance. Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes, with some populations in Catastrophe (IPC Phase 5), will persist during the harvest (October-January) along active front lines given the scale of conflict disruptions to agricultural engagement, compounded by El Niño-driven severely below-average rainfall and high temperatures. In these areas, harvests are expected to be marginal at best. In other areas of western Sudan, insecurity and below-average rainfall is expected to lead to poor harvests and sustain persistently high prices, driving widespread Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes during the typical harvest period (October – January). In calmer eastern areas, access to harvests, though below-average, and income from agricultural labor will ease consumption gaps, supporting Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes. There is a credible risk of Famine (IPC Phase 5) through January in seven areas of northwestern and central North Darfur, and in Dilling and Kadugli of South Kordofan and nearby rural areas. Large to extreme food consumption deficits are already widespread alongside high acute malnutrition. If conflict escalates or severe sieges resume and isolate populations for a prolonged time in combination with marginal-to-no harvests, worsening food consumption deficits and hunger-related mortality alongside already extreme acute malnutrition, then Famine (IPC Phase 5) would likely occur.
Sudan Food Security Outlook Update: Conflict and poor rains to drive Emergency and risk of Famine during harvest, August 2026 – January 2027
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