ISMO starts data collection for IGCEP 2027

ISLAMABAD: The Independent System and Market Operator (ISMO) has initiated work on the Indicative Generation Capacity Expansion Plan (IGCEP) 2027, seeking project-specific data from provinces and other relevant entities by September 14, 2026, well-informed sources told Business Recorder. The development comes despite the fact that the National Electric Power Regulatory Authority (Nepra) has yet to notify IGCEP 2025-35, which is required to be reviewed annually under the Grid Code. According to official communication circulated among provincial governments and other stakeholders, ISMO has initiated the data collection process for the next iteration of the IGCEP, covering a 10-year planning horizon from 2027 to 2037. READ MORE: ISMO agrees to include 269MW hybrid Dhabeji as optimised project Pursuant to Clause PC 4. 2. 1 of the Grid Code, ISMO said the exercise would cover all existing and potential thermal, hydropower, renewable and hybrid power plants, including projects based on emerging and new technologies. “This is a highly important exercise with strategic and long-term implications for the country’s future energy mix, ” ISMO said, emphasising that accurate, comprehensive, realistic and timely inputs from all relevant entities across the power sector were essential for preparing a robust and reliable generation capacity expansion plan. ISMO has asked stakeholders to provide project-specific data for all existing and potential thermal, hydro, renewable and hybrid power projects under their jurisdiction through prescribed proformas. The completed proformas are required to be submitted by September 14, 2026. Sources said the exercise is being undertaken even though IGCEP 2025-35 has not yet been formally notified by Nepra. The regulator had raised several questions regarding the proposed plan on May 7, 2026. According to IGCEP 2025-35, Pakistan’s installed generation capacity was projected to rise by around 49 percent, from 43, 069 MW in 2024 to 64, 035 MW by 2035. The proposed plan has also faced controversy over the exclusion or treatment of certain hydropower projects. The Khyber Pakhtunkhwa government has approached the court against the exclusion of some of its hydel projects from IGCEP 2025-35. The latest planning exercise is also taking place against the backdrop of significant changes in electricity demand patterns. According to the federal government, country-level and spatial load forecasts remained broadly consistent between TSEP 2024-34 and IGCEP 2025-35. However, distribution companies have reported a sharp decline in grid-connected electricity consumption. The National Grid Company (NGC) attributed the decline primarily to economic slowdown and the rapid expansion of net-metering and rooftop solar generation. The long-term planner, however, considers the decline to be temporary and has maintained that it is not sufficient at this stage to alter long-term transmission expansion decisions. The trend would be closely monitored, with adjustments to future plans, possible if the decline persists. A comparison of IGCEP 2025-35 with the previous IGCEP 2024-34 also indicates substantial changes in the expected commissioning schedules of major hydropower projects. The commercial operation dates (CODs) of major projects, including the 2, 160 MW Dasu Hydropower Project, 800 MW Mohmand Hydropower Project and 4, 500 MW Diamer Bhasha Hydropower Project, have been delayed in the revised planning scenarios. In the June 2027 scenario, the revisions reflect delays in Dasu and Mohmand hydropower projects. Earlier projections had incorporated three units of Dasu, each having a capacity of 360 MW, as well as all four units of Mohmand, each with a capacity of 200 MW. Under the revised scenario, only one 360 MW unit of Dasu has been considered, while Mohmand makes no contribution. Similarly, the June 2029 scenario was revised because of delays in the Diamer Bhasha project. Earlier assumptions had included five units of the project, each with a capacity of 375 MW, but the updated scenario makes no contribution from Diamer Bhasha at that stage. For the July/August 2034 peak scenario, aligned with the updated planning horizon of 2034-35, all 12 units of Diamer Bhasha, each having a capacity of 375 MW, have been considered. The scenario also includes around 1, 400 MW of wind power optimised under IGCEP. Of this, 800 MW and 500 MW wind projects have been assumed to be accommodated within the existing networks of QESCO and Jhimpir respectively, without requiring additional network reinforcement. Meanwhile, Nepra has recently issued Addendum-II to the IGCEP 2025-35 proceedings, stating that ISMO has agreed to include the 269 MW hybrid Dhabeji project of JCM Canada as an optimised project following re-simulation of IGCEP-2025 based on revised project data. The inclusion of the project reflects the continuing process of updating and refining the generation expansion plan in light of revised project information. Officials said the initiation of IGCEP 2027 data collection would provide ISMO with an opportunity to incorporate updated demand trends, project timelines, renewable energy penetration, distributed generation and emerging technologies into the country’s next generation expansion roadmap. The exercise assumes added significance as Pakistan’s power sector is undergoing structural changes due to the rapid growth of rooftop solar and net-metering, changing electricity consumption patterns, delays in large hydropower projects and increasing emphasis on renewable and hybrid generation. ISMO has therefore stressed that timely submission of complete, accurate, realistic and project-specific information by all stakeholders is critical to the successful development of IGCEP 2027. Copyright Business Recorder, 2026

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