War has made Tehran more confident, say US intelligence agencies

WASHINGTON: Intelli­gence agencies in the United States believe that six months of war may have made Iran more, not less, confident in its ability to withstand American pressure and continue the conflict. A New York Times report, published on Friday, says “Iran has grown more confident in its ability to attack targets in the Middle East and appears determined to continue the conflict for months to frustrate the United States”. The assessment comes as clashes resumed this week. “The new exchanges have been limited so far. But the intelligence reports, according to people who have read them, suggest that Iran’s hardline government might be contemplating a significant escalation, ” the newspaper reported. The intelligence assessments also indicate that reaching an agreement to end the war could prove difficult. Current and former US officials told the NYT that there are few indications Tehran is ready to make a deal with Washington. Mid-term elections Some officials believe Tehran may seek to prolong the conflict until at least the US mid-term elections in November, calculating that continued warfare and high energy prices could create difficulties for President Trump and Republicans. The report notes Donald Trump is currently not pursuing negotiations as he believes that economic pressure can force Tehran to make concessions concerning its control of the Strait of Hormuz and, eventually, its nuclear programme. But officials familiar with the intelligence told the NYT that sanctions could provoke further escalation. Missile and drone capability Iran’s military calculations appear shaped by its growing missile and drone capability and by its understanding of how to use the Strait of Hormuz as leverage. The strait carried roughly one-fifth of the world’s oil before the war. Representative Jason Crow, a Colorado Democrat and member of the House Intelligence Committee, described the Iranian leadership as increasingly confident. “Iranians are feeling pretty bullish about their position, ” he said. But at the same time he acknowledged that Iran has suffered substantial damage. Other officials briefed on the intelligence said Iran may also believe that the United States will be constrained in launching major new attacks as its ammunition stocks decline. Representative Josh Gottheimer, a New Jersey Democrat and Intelligence Committee member, said: “The Iranians think they have maximum leverage. ” He suggested that, from Tehran’s perspective, continuing to pressure the Trump administration could serve its interests. The conflict has also opened a cyber front. According to the Times, US officials believe Iran-linked hackers were probably responsible for attacks on more than 100 American water systems in late July. The attacks did not appear to make drinking water unsafe, although some caused disruptions requiring manual overrides and precautionary boil-water advisories. Officials said Iranian hackers have also shown interest in US oil and gas infrastructure. The New York Times reported that Iranian-linked cyber hackers may have regrouped after suffering losses early in the war. Former intelligence officials and cybersecurity experts said such attacks could remain attractive to Tehran because even limited disruptions might weaken American public support for a conflict with no clear end. Alex Orleans, a former US government cybersecurity contractor who tracks Iranian hacking groups, said Iran’s cyberoperators probably feel emboldened. He warned that even unsuccessful attacks could serve a broader purpose by exhausting public patience with the conflict. Influencing political scene The report also describes Iranian efforts to influence US politics, including propaganda and social-media activity focused on mid-term elections. Meta recently identified a small network of Iran-based accounts on Facebook and Instagram that posted material concerning US politics. Taken together, the intelligence assessments present a picture of an Iranian government that has been damaged but does not regard itself as defeated. Six months of warfare may have strengthened Tehran’s belief that it can absorb punishment, retain important military capabilities and continue imposing costs on the United States and its allies. Published in Dawn, September 5th, 2026

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